Bad Decisions Lead To Bad Results

Last month I attended an LVO qualifier and got bopped in the first round by my opponent. I played Magneto Brotherhood into SHIELD, a matchup I was unfamiliar with. I started strong by dazing Beta Ray Bill round one and getting an extract advantage. In the second turn my Red Skull got 1 shot by Hawkeye who followed up with 5 damage into Apex.

The chances of 7 damage into skull by Hawkeye is 0.8%. I got diced and that set me back in the game as I was not able to regain control from that point. It would be easy to say "I got diced and lost". Except there were several bad decsions made that created the scenario that allowed Hawkeye to do what he did.

The Mistakes

My opponent apoligized for the unlikely occurence but even in the moment I knew I messed up prior. Marvel dice are Marvel dice. Playing the percentages may seem like a smart idea, using dice calculators and being pseudo mathemtician to make decisions. Except Marvel dice have such large variable ranges that if you don't take edge cases into account then that is your fault.

Mistake 1 Leaving Clint Alive

Prior to Hawkeye going Rambo, he was attacked and moved by Magneto, leaving him on 1 health. I had enough power to throw 1 more piece of terrain. I didn't feel like the investment of power and likelyhood to daze was enough to try that play. It was only a size 1 piece and Hawkeye has 4 physical defense. 2 guarenteed damage going into 4 defense isn't the worst odds to sneak a damage through. I wanted tokeep power for Force Projection and Magnetic Refraction against a team that had multiple ways to ignore cover (Another bad idea).

In reality I did not do everything I could have done to daze Hawkeye and prevent the spike. Had I thrown that piece terrain there's decent chance he dazes and never attacks skull. This was only 1 mistake that lead to the Hawkeye turn.

Mistake 2 Deception

Leaving Hawekye on 1 was a mistake. It wasn't the only mistake. Mystique could have deceptioned Hawkeye to pull him deeper into my team. We were on Montessi/Demons and Hawkeye woudl've been surrounded by several of my models and threatened to be incinerated.

Instead Hawkeye hook arrowed away and double tapped my team. Had I deceptioned him in maybe he spends 1 action moving. Maybe deception changes the priority of his targets. MCP is often asking and answering questions but not using deception allowed my opponent to go downa very obvious decision tree.

He may have still opted to do the same attacks as before. If I had used deception he might have at least used some mental energy on thinking through his turn. During the course of a tournament and game, sometimes creating a mental tax can have in game tangible results.

Either way the choice to not be more aggressive into Hawkeye created the oppurtunity for a dice spike that severely hampered my ability to win. Yes the spike was low odds but I could have made the odds 0 through better decision making prior to that.